Rafael Nadal’s baseline sucker punch is to be feared but Andy Murray could still be best served by hunting at the net
Just after he had hustled the determined but outclassed American Michael Russell out of the tournament in under two hours on the first Monday, Rafael Nadal was asked how confident he was of defending his title. He replied, with just the right degree of exasperation, “Let’s talk about it in 10 days or 12 days, because I don’t know if I am here or I am fishing in Mallorca.”
He’s not fishing in Mallorca. It is Andy Murray’s privilege on Centre Court on Friday to see if he can send him home early. How Murray goes about his task presents a dilemma familiar to all of Nadal’s opponents: to go for a knockout and risk everything – as John Isner did in Paris – or to grind it out against a great player who has looked fleetingly vulnerable, never more so than when he was having his left foot strapped up and contemplating withdrawing near the end of the first set in his fourth-round match against Juan Martín del Potro.
He says that injury is “fine”, a hopeful rather than buoyant prognosis. So Murray will have chances if Nadal struggles with his lateral movement, one of his many strengths.
At least Murray knows how Nadal will approach their 16th meeting since he lost to the Spaniard for the first time, in five sets at the Australian Open four years ago. Nadal, nostrils flared and eyebrows arched, will attack Murray from the first to the last gasp, just as he has done in his 11 wins and four defeats against him.
“I have to play my tennis,” Nadal said. “I have to play aggressive every day. I love to play on grass. I love to play in this fabulous place. But, if you play too defensive, it is impossible to win here.
“If you have the confidence to hit good shots, you are going to be closer to the net and you are going to have more chances to finish the points there.”
First-strike tennis, Roger Federer called it after beating David Nalbandian in three quick sets in the third round. “The rallies weren’t that long,” Federer said, “but, when they were being played, the ball was being hit very hard and very clean.”
Yet he foundered on that very principle in his quarter-final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, blitzed in the fastest of five sets – 52 games in three hours and eight minutes, which is less than four minutes a game – an almost reckless, un-Federeresque rush to destruction.
While Murray agrees with Nadal and Federer that it is nearly as risky to remain passive on the quickening grass towards the end of the second week as to hunt at the net, his instinct is to watch and wait.
Yet he is more aware than most that the “transition game”, as players call the movement from defence to attack, is that much harder against an opponent capable of turning his wrist at the last moment to change direction and depth; no one does that better than Nadal, although Novak Djokovic comes close.
So, to win Wimbledon, Murray must beat the maestro of sucker-punch deception from the back of the court and his Serbian understudy, if he beats Tsonga,
It might come as a surprise to those who rely on body language rather than statistics and their own observation but, over the course of the first five matches, Murray has matched Nadal for aggression and sometimes bettered him.
The world No4 began with intent against Daniel Gimeno-Traver and, in an hour less than Federer took losing to Tsonga, he rattled through three sets by winning 90% of points on his first serve, and took 23 points in 26 visits to the net. It was a stroll.
He did not maintain that rate but, overall, he could argue that this Wimbledon saw him at his positive best. He won 88 points with his volley from 132 attempts; Nadal was similarly adventurous, taking 94 points from 116 opportunities at the net.It ought to be remembered, though, that Nadal has spent two hours more than Murray on court.
That said, there will be little between them in energy and verve. Perhaps, though, Murray feels he is more on top of his game, marginally more confident when going for the kill.
He might not get a better chance at a major to send Nadal in search of his rod and reel before the final.
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